DESPITE the uncertain global economy, the last quarter of 2016 saw a mood of confidence sweeping through the world of organisations run by YPO members.
The YPO Global Pulse, reflects the views of 24,000 CEOs in 130 countries. The YPO Confidence Index is an indicator of YPO members’ sentiment about the overall economic outlook. An index of 50 represents a neutral outlook: neither optimistic nor pessimistic. Indices below 50 indicate a more pessimistic outlook, while numbers above 50 indicate a more optimistic outlook.
For the 4Q 2016, responses from 1,514 YPO CEOs across the globe, including 189 in Asia, were received. The result of the pre-Donald Trump as POTUS era shows the United States having the largest surge in economic confidence in five years; climbing 4.2 points to 64.6.
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In Asia, a modest increase in economic confidence was felt, rising 1.2 points to 61.2.
This wasn’t the case in ASEAN, where the confidence soared by 9.4 points to 62.0 as commodity and oil prices staged a rebound. This followed a 3Q slump in confidence.
China and India remained relatively upbeat in Asia, where the three key indicators in the YPO Global Pulse Index — sales, hiring and fixed investment — all increased in the final quarter of 2016.
This trend is expected to continue in Asia, based on CEO expectations for 2017. Two-thirds of chief executives (65%) expected sales to increase (28% expected no change), more than a third (35%) expected to increase headcount (55% unchanged), while more than half (53%) expected to increase fixed investment (42% unchanged).
Only Africa showed a decline in confidence in the last quarter of 2016.
Now that the 1Q of 2017 is well underway, a more realistic figure may emerge in the aftermath of world events at the next Global Pulse survey findings.